Friday, September 25, 2009

Los Angeles Council District 2: I get email

On Wednesday, I wrote this piece for Calitics about the Los Angeles City Council District 2 race (which has statewide implications due to the possibility that Krekorian will be leaving the Assembly should he prevail in the December 8 runoff). I would like to highlight in particular:

One last note: Eric Hacopian is probably the hottest mail consultant in the state right now. Fresh from engineering Emmanuel Pleitez' head-turning campaign in CA-32, Hacopian turns around and gives Krekorian a handy victory in the 2nd Council District primary. Nice going.

Now, apparently some people don't like that opinion. I got an email from an anonymous delivery service, so it's completely untraceable. I got it on Thursday morning, essentially a day removed from the election returns. I quote:

You must be a politics outsider.

You post stuff like, \"Hacopian is the best mail consultant\" [and
that is why Krekorian won.]

And, \"golly gee, the absentees really were a lot.\"

Do a google search for \"Hacopian and forged absentees.\" Research
what the law the city of Glendale had to pass in municipal elections
to prevent his fraud.

Turnout in the 2nd council district was 10%. Armenian turnout, if we
are to believe the numbers, was 99%. Even the dead ones voted. I\'ll
have you guess for whom.

Armenian absentee voters are typically 1% of the population. This
year, they were 22%, a 2200% increase.

Paul got 40% of the absentee vote when you figured these numbers,
then roughly 28% at the polls.

Hmmm.... Is he the real preference of real voters?

If you care one iota about politics and preserving our right to vote,
you\'ll post a story with some well researched facts. It is well
known that Hacopian forges absentee ballots. Only a matter of time
before he gets caught. The numbers in this race are highly
suspicious, and merit a little more analysis than your doe eyed post.

Let's see now. First of all, I did that Google search. Nothing came up. Not even a rumor. Secondly, for someone to have specific numbers like that, they must have to have access to the PDI data that can track that information along ethnic surnames, and the only way one would have access to that is if one were working on one of the campaigns that were well-financed enough to purchase it. Or one could have just made up the numbers out of whole cloth.

One argument the anonymous flamethrower makes is that the discrepancy between Krekorian's election-day results and his absentee results is indicative of fraud. Problem is, it's not. Judy Chu got about 40% of the absentee ballot vote, but ended up with a 32%-23% victory over Gil Cedillo--and that's a race where the ration of absentee ballots to poll ballots was significantly lower.

So, there are two things to conclude. One, some campaign insider likes throwing anonymous bombshells. And two, whichever insider that is hasn't studied the numbers--including from an election on which Hacopian was on the losing side.

Of course, if you had this sort of irrefutable evidence that dead people were casting absentee ballots, wouldn't you file some sort of police report? It's a crime, after all...